Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It? How Can We Know? - New Edition

let's talk about some of your earlier work ... your book, Expert Political Judgment, from 2005, in which you concluded that the average expert on economics or politics was roughly as accurate as a dartthrowing chimpanzee.

It was a sly title because the experts' predictions often weren't very expert.

In the end we had close to 300 participants

The study became the basis of a book Tetlock published a few years ago Called Expert Political Judgment

There's an aphorism I quote In the expert political judgment book from Karl Marx

I think the most important takeaway would be that the experts think they know more than they do.

They were systematically overconfident.

The study became the basis of a book Tetlock published a few years ago called Expert Political Judgment.

There's an aphorism I quote in the Expert Political Judgment book from Karl Marx.

One of my favorite all time books is a book called Expert Political Judgment which is by a guy called Phil Tatt that lock he was a professor at UC Berkeley did 20 years of research on expert opinion.

And his general question over 20 years following 28,000 forecasts with 84,000 scenarios which he classified when the forecast was made not retroactively his general conclusion was experts have about the accuracy of dot throwing monkeys.