Podcast
The Jordan Harbinger Show
It was discussed how people often mistake correlation for causation when it comes to confidence and success, and that a more accurate approach is to think in probability distributions.
When I read what you had written me, it sounded like a nice, interesting and unique-ish take on thinking in bets from Annie Duke.
— Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship with...
Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship without Naggin...
It was discussed how people often mistake correlation for causation when it comes to confidence and success, and that a more accurate approach is to think in probability distributions.
When I read what you had written me, it sounded like a nice, interesting and unique-ish take on thinking in bets from Annie Duke.
The future is fundamentally uncertain and thinking about it as a probability distribution is so helpful for getting clarity in lots of things, including how to calibrate your confidence in that uncertain future.
Just because confident people are more likely to win athletic contests and succeed in business and get elected to political office does not mean that their confidence was causal in those outcomes.
Fooling yourself into being more confident can lead you to want to trick yourself into being more confident, and although there are some circumstances in which more confidence might increase your chance of success...
Confidence is either a side effect of success or a non-causal relationship, or it actually causes you to be less successful because you were overconfident.
Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship without Naggin...
The podcast discussed how people often misinterpret confidence as a cause of success, when it's frequently a side effect or unrelated. Don Moore's advice was to think in terms of probability distributions and consider the opposite.
a lot of people are mixing up correlation with causation...just because confident people are more likely to win athletic contests and succeed in business and get elected to political office does not mean that their confidence was causal in those outcomes
fooling yourself into being more confident...that's a brittle confidence that puts you at risk of taking bad risks that don't ultimately pay off
confidence is either a side effect of success or non-causal relationship or it actually causes you to be less successful because you were overconfident
I'm 70% sure instead of either I'm definitely sure or I have no idea
consider the opposite...think about other perspectives...consider different perspectives...explicitly asking yourself why you might be wrong