Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely Cover
Podcast Mentions

Perfectly Confident How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely

Don A Moore

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of th...

Podcasts 1
Quotes 5
The Jordan Harbinger Show

It was discussed how humans often incorrectly assume confidence is the cause of success, when it can be a result of success or even hinder it. The concept of thinking in probability distributions was presented as a more accurate approach to decision-making.

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a lot of people are mixing up correlation with causation... fooling ourselves into being more confident will actually improve our performance... like fake it till you make it

— Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship with...

Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship without Naggin...

It was discussed how humans often incorrectly assume confidence is the cause of success, when it can be a result of success or even hinder it. The concept of thinking in probability distributions was presented as a more accurate approach to decision-making.

"

a lot of people are mixing up correlation with causation... fooling ourselves into being more confident will actually improve our performance... like fake it till you make it

it's easy to observe the tight association that we see all around us between confidence and performance and get confused between correlation and causation... does not mean that their confidence was causal in those outcomes

fool yourself that way thinking that it's confidence... their confidence that made them successful can lead you to want to trick yourself into being more confident

confidence is either a side effect of success or non-causal relationship or it actually causes you to be less successful because you were overconfident

I'm 70% sure instead of either I'm definitely sure or I have no idea... consider the opposite... consider different perspectives

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