Podcast
The Jordan Harbinger Show
It was discussed how humans often incorrectly assume confidence is the cause of success, when it can be a result of success or even hinder it. The concept of thinking in probability distributions was presented as a more accurate approach to decision-making.
a lot of people are mixing up correlation with causation... fooling ourselves into being more confident will actually improve our performance... like fake it till you make it
— Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship with...
Episode: 367: How to "Fix" Your Relationship without Naggin...
It was discussed how humans often incorrectly assume confidence is the cause of success, when it can be a result of success or even hinder it. The concept of thinking in probability distributions was presented as a more accurate approach to decision-making.
a lot of people are mixing up correlation with causation... fooling ourselves into being more confident will actually improve our performance... like fake it till you make it
it's easy to observe the tight association that we see all around us between confidence and performance and get confused between correlation and causation... does not mean that their confidence was causal in those outcomes
fool yourself that way thinking that it's confidence... their confidence that made them successful can lead you to want to trick yourself into being more confident
confidence is either a side effect of success or non-causal relationship or it actually causes you to be less successful because you were overconfident
I'm 70% sure instead of either I'm definitely sure or I have no idea... consider the opposite... consider different perspectives