The Strategy of Denial American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict

The fourth one, because I'm cheating, is a book by a former housemate of mine, Elbridge Colby called The Strategy of Denial, which is essentially about this new age of great power competition and the challenge to US global leadership that China poses, what we ought to do about it, why we ought to prioritize it.

Elbridge Colby, who is booked for the show, who can dig into all of this.

Elbridge Colby's a principal at the Marathon Initiative and he's the author of a new book, the Strategy of Denial.

I think he's right but I think it's actually unwise in the sense that I actually think he's correct that we should and almost invariably would come to Taiwan's defense.

The question is more whether we'd be effective but the thing is not to, you know, either way I think about it's like we're kind of poking the dragon right now.

I think a war is very plausible China has the will to take over Taiwan it has increasingly has a way and it may have a sense of urgency about it.

If we don't have a military denial and I would just say Saagar it's not so much nuclear Japan would not be the worst outcome.

I think the worst outcome is is well over 50 of global GDP that's under China's control that he probably uses the Yuan that follows Chinese regulations that is the gatekeeper for all American companies indirect or directly and we're all going to be working for that right.

I think he's right but I think it's actually unwise in the sense that I actually think he's correct that we should and almost invariably would come to Taiwan's defense.

The question is more whether we'd be effective but the thing is not to you know either way I think about it's like we're kind of poking the dragon right now.

I think we should maintain the sort of formal policy almost like the fiction of strategic ambiguity which is a kind of decades old policy that allows us to kind of interact with the Chinese.

But we should very clearly understand that we would come to Taiwan's defense but the key there is actually to resource it and have the prioritization of focus.

And you mentioned Europe, we're not doing that right now we're sending 40 billion dollars to Europe basically and there's almost nothing to show forward in the Asian Pacific and the situation is grave and it's deteriorating.

You can follow me on Twitter at elbridgecolby or X in my book, The Strategy of Denial, American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.

His book is Strategy of Denial, American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict.

Speaking of Bridge Colby, his book is strategy of denial and bridge.

Encourage you guys to check out the strategy of denial American defense in an age of great power conflict.

Bridge Colby I think is unquestionably right and I think has been the most influential thinker in the last few years his book strategy of denial basically there's two forms of deterrence one is deterrence by punishment where you say if you do X I will retaliate by doing Y the problem with that is it relies upon the credibility of the punisher right like it relies upon us thinking that if Biden or whoever is the next president says don't do it because we will we will punish you and it could get really ugly that those claims are credible a lot of problems with that particularly our willingness to escalate to a nuclear level it gets really complicated which is why it deterrence by denial strategy where you just actually put in place the weapons and forces that make the achievement of the objective difficult if not impossible is a more logical one