Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction

He tells the story in a new book called Superforecasting, co-authored by the journalist Dan Gardner.

The book is both a how-to if at a rather high level and a cautionary tale about all the flaws that lead so many people to make so many bad forecasts.

In the book, you mention a couple cases from history where the intelligence community did not do so well.

That's how he puts it in his book, Super Forecasting.

Predicting the future isn't about being unusually smart or especially knowledgeable. It's about understanding the pitfalls in the way we think and practicing better habits of mind.

I would say the most distinctive attribute of the superforecasters is their curiosity and their willingness to give the idea a try.

Because it doesn't matter how intelligent you are or how knowledgeable you are, if you believe that it's essentially impossible to get better at these kinds of tasks, you're never going to try and it's never going to happen.

So when they say events are 80% likely, those events happen about 80% of the time. When they say things are 90% likely, they happen about 90% of the time.

So again, think of forecasting as a skill that can be improved with practice. When you're making a prediction, start with the base rate, the outside in view. Beware of the risks of storytelling. Finally, amateurs make three kinds of predictions, yes, no, and maybe. Professionals have many gradations of maybe.

In his book, Superforecasting, the Art and Science of Prediction, Phil explores how we can learn from these people to become better forecasters ourselves.

Psychologist Phil Tetlock is the author of Superforecasting, The Art and Science of Prediction.

Annie Duke Angela Duckworth had recommended Super Forecasters yep right and and they and that whole pin group brilliant people that's in the decision making and psychology decision making but I had never read it so it's a little bit older book but there's an element of what we do in especially in player personnel right decisions where you have these large staffs and right we're all we have these independent opinions and trying to right have you read Fooled by Randomness