Podcast
No Stupid Questions
The book defined a black swan event as something unpredictable, carrying a massive impact, and which people rationalize after the fact to seem predictable. The speakers noted that people tend to misinterpret the concept by trying to predict these rare events.
Many people think of this now as the black swan effect after Nassim Taleb's book of that name.
— Episode: 49. How Does Facing Death Change Your Li...
Episode: 49. How Does Facing Death Change Your Life?
The book defined a black swan event as something unpredictable, carrying a massive impact, and which people rationalize after the fact to seem predictable. The speakers noted that people tend to misinterpret the concept by trying to predict these rare events.
Many people think of this now as the black swan effect after Nassim Taleb's book of that name.
So Nassim defined a black swan event as having three central characteristics. Number one, and this is really important, it is unpredictable. Number two, it carries a massive impact. And number three, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was.
But anyway, I think one weird thing, how's that, about the black swan effect is that people go seeking them out. They say, oh, this is a black swan event coming. This is a black swan. When by its nature, it is unpredictable. And rare. And very rare.